Amit Shah's strategic manoeuvres delivered a resounding victory for the BJP-led NDA in Bihar's 2025 assembly elections, securing over 200 seats in a masterstroke that reaffirmed the alliance's dominance. Now, the question looms: Can this Hindutva momentum breach Tamil Nadu's resilient Dravidian stronghold, or will the state, as it has often done, repel external pressures with its steadfast regional pride?

The 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly election unfolds like a gripping film script, minus a predefined hero or villain. The BJP is mounting a full-scale campaign, yet the turf remains firmly under DMK control. Chief Minister MK Stalin holds power but faces mounting scrutiny, with his coalition appearing solid on the surface, while subtle fissures are emerging.

Read in Hindi: तमिलनाडु की फिल्मों से प्रभावित राजनीति में सस्पेंस ही सस्पेंस...!

In Chennai's political circles, speculation is rife: Will Shah's electoral machine stumble in the South? Could a splintered opposition forge a reluctant unity? And might a fresh contender, like a rising star, upend the established narrative on this fatigued stage?

Tamil Nadu's 2026 contest is a complex tangle of ideologies, identity politics, and egos. Victory will favour the adaptable, as overconfidence could prove more perilous than bold strategy. This makes the race as exhilarating as it is unpredictable.

On paper, MK Stalin's DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, including Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and Left parties, commands 159 seats from the 2021 polls. Numerically, a repeat seems plausible, but politics rarely adheres to arithmetic alone.

After nearly five years in office, the DMK grapples with anti-incumbency. Public discontent simmers over governance lapses, corruption allegations, delays in key promises, and the unresolved push to scrap NEET, fueling voter unease.

The primary challenger is the AIADMK, which realigned with the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance in April 2025 after parting ways post-2024 Lok Sabha polls. The NDA also includes the Pattali Makkal Katchi, which joined in January 2026, and potentially the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, though its stance remains fluid. This bloc aims to consolidate anti-DMK votes, but cohesion is fragile.

Post-Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK has struggled to reclaim its glory, while the BJP's growth faces resistance from Tamil Nadu's entrenched ethos of social justice and rationalism. PMK's internal family rift adds further instability. The math looks promising; the synergy does not.

Injecting volatility are emerging players. Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, launched in 2024, has galvanised Gen Z voters, who comprise about a fifth of the electorate, with its clean-image, anti-corruption stance, and film-forged emotional appeal. TVK recently formed a manifesto committee focusing on education, health, agriculture, and industry, signalling structured ambitions.

However, Vijay's path has been turbulent. The September 2025 stampede at TVK's Kurral rally in Karur claimed 41 lives and injured over 100, triggering a CBI investigation. Supporters hail him as an MGR-like saviour, but detractors question his policy depth and organisational resilience amid ongoing scrutiny.

Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi adds another layer, tapping into Tamil nationalism and disillusioned voters. Together, TVK and NTK could siphon 15-20 per cent of votes, primarily eroding the anti-DMK bloc and tipping close races.

Cinema's sway over Tamil politics is timeless, from MGR to Jayalalithaa; stars have ascended to power. Vijay follows suit, transforming fan clubs into party machinery and embedding messages in films. Yet, Kamal Haasan's underwhelming foray underscores that stardom alone demands ideological grounding and administrative acumen.

The BJP is amplifying cultural-religious narratives, framing the DMK as anti-Hindu and opposed to temple traditions and Sanatana Dharma. Tamil Nadu, however, has historically resisted such polarisation, prioritising social justice, regional identity, and rationalism.

Caste dynamics remain pivotal: Dalits, Thevars, Gounders, Vanniyars, and Devendra Kula Vellalars will influence regional outcomes. Alliances hinge on these calculations, often deciding by razor-thin margins.

Governance issues like unemployment, inflation, and welfare dominate discourse. The DMK has rolled out initiatives such as Pongal cash aid, free laptops, and expanded women's schemes, framed as social support but aimed at voter retention.

A contentious voter list revision in December 2025 deleted nearly 97 lakh names under the Special Intensive Revision, citing deceased (27 lakh), shifted or absent (66 lakh), and duplicates (3.4 lakh). The DMK raises concerns over the potential exclusion of minorities and migrants, while the opposition views it as purging fakes. In a close contest, this could prove decisive. So, where does Tamil Nadu stand?

The DMK boasts organisational muscle and alliance discipline, but faces a fragmented yet energised opposition, Vijay's wildcard entry, and voter fatigue. Predictions vary: some foresee a DMK edge due to opposition splits, while others warn of a hung assembly or surprise shift. Fragmentation might benefit the incumbent, but anti-incumbency could realign votes.

Ultimately, the voters, especially first-time youth, hold the script. Will they cling to Dravidian traditions or embrace new voices? The verdict will shape whether 2026 ushers in continuity or sparks political transformation.