The National Democratic Alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party, Janata Dal United, and Lok Janshakti Party, appears united and confident in Bihar. The NDA believes it will return to power, though Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s future remains uncertain. 

On the other hand, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and its INDI Alliance seem fragmented. They lack a clear political narrative beyond focusing on the Muslim-Yadav vote bank. The NDA, meanwhile, has gained an ideological edge through polarisation politics. Chirag Paswan has emerged as a strong contender this time, posing a serious challenge to Tejashwi Yadav.

However, Indian elections are always unpredictable, and the extent of anti-incumbency remains unclear. Prof Paras Nath Choudhary, an expert on Bihar’s politics and a senior Patna-based journalist tracking the state’s political dynamics, believes the NDA is in a strong position. According to him, Lalu Yadav’s influence has waned, as his health and rhetoric no longer inspire people. While some news channels portray his son, Tejashwi Yadav, as popular, this claim lacks substance. Tejashwi remains confined to the MY vote base. Surprisingly, a significant section of the Yadav community is leaning towards the NDA. If the RJD fails to bring other social groups into its fold, its defeat is certain. 

Tejashwi’s lack of political decorum and unnecessary sharp remarks are his weaknesses. He has yet to step out of Lalu’s shadow and does not exhibit the gravitas needed for a top post like Chief Minister. Additionally, other INDI Alliance partners, such as the Congress, hold little sway in Bihar. 

Meanwhile, the NDA’s BJP-JDU-LJP coalition appears formidable. Modi’s popularity has surged post-Operation Sindoor, further solidifying the NDA’s position. Most voters seem to favour the alliance. Chirag Paswan’s fresh appeal, especially among youth and Dalit voters, strengthens his position against Tejashwi. His charismatic persona and alignment with Modi’s vision will bolster the NDA. 

However, Bihar’s elections are never easy. Anti-incumbency remains a major concern. Issues like unemployment, infrastructure, and floods could anger voters. If the NDA ignores local issues, its advantage may shrink. Nitish Kumar’s future is also in question. Will he remain CM, or will someone else take over? Yet, the BJP-led alliance seems unwilling to take that risk. 

Prof Choudhary says, “Modi’s alliance is marching towards victory.” Patna’s media also agrees that Lalu’s magic is over, and Tejashwi lacks the strength to counter the NDA. The NDA’s unity, polarisation strategy, and Modi’s popularity are working in its favour. Unless the RJD crafts a new strategy or builds a broader social coalition, its path looks difficult. For now, Bihar’s political wind is blowing strongly in the NDA’s direction.