Rooftops around the world could be key to fighting the climate crisis, new research from Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) shows.

Behnam Zakeri, Assistant Professor at WU’s Institute for Data, Energy, and Sustainability, and his fellow researchers utilised machine learning to estimate global rooftop area growth from 2020 to 2050.

They found that by 2050, the global rooftop area is expected to increase to between 0.3 and 0.38 million square kilometres, representing a 20-52 per cent increase from 2020, depending on different socio-economic developments. Africa is projected to see the highest growth, potentially doubling its rooftop area.

With buildings accounting for 30 per cent of global final energy consumption and 26 per cent of global energy-related emissions, the model can aid in planning sustainable energy systems, with significant potential benefits in emerging economies.

Rooftop solar power holds significant potential for emerging economies. With rapid rooftop area growth, these regions can leverage their manufacturing capabilities, high solar potential, cost-effective labour, and entrepreneurial spirit to achieve sustainable development and prosperity.

This single harmonized global dataset can be used to inform policies for mitigating climate change, reducing biodiversity loss, and disaster risk management.

Zakeri emphasizes the breakthrough nature of this work, “this research exemplifies the power of Artificial Intelligence and emerging data sources in potentially resolving global sustainability challenges. This was not possible a few years ago or would have been very costly using alternative methods.”

The study is also highly useful for urban planning and in the design of sustainable cities, furthering the ethos of the UN Sustainable Development Goals 7 (clean energy), 11 (sustainable cities), 13 (climate action), and 15 (life on land).

The paper and the dataset were published open-access in Nature.