Addressing a press conference here on mid season appraisal of Monsoon 2010 and forecast for remaining season , i.e. August & September, Dr. Ajit Tyagi, Director General, IMD said that there will be normal monsoon this year in the country.

 He said, “The distribution of rainfall is also good. 76% area has got normal or excess rain fall, only deficit area over the North-eastern parts of the country will have little deficit. With active monsoon the deficit is not of that severe nature but particularly over Jharkhand, West Bengal, eastern UP and parts of Madhya Pradesh deficit in rain fall will remain.”

 Giving details of rain fall he said All India rainfall till 28 of this month was 1% above as compared to LPA. This is within range of IMD’s prediction which was 98%. Dr. Tyagi expects it to be 100 % by tomorrow. All India rainfall during the week was 38% above long period average (LPA) and as result, seasonal rainfall departure from LPA for the country as a whole has improved significantly compared to last week from -14% to -5%, he added.

 Talking about large scale features he said they will continue to be favorable and with presence of La Nina we expect continuous rain. The second half of August will have higher rain fall than the first half. The -5% deficits should be made up over period of time. For the month of September the rain will be on higher side. August and September together is going to be 107% rain fall, he added.

 As of today, the north-east has rain fall on lower side, which is -24% and it will improve gradually and the deficit will remain -10% over West Bengal , Jharkhand, Bihar.

As per Dr. Tyagi, Central India will be close to normal and peninsular region will have rain on higher side. He explained that the only unfavorable factor so far is that the Bay of Bengal has not been very active and no depression has been formed. This is one of the reasons why rain fall over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas have been on lower side.

The longer days of depression also compensate for rain fall some times. There is no cause of worry, he insisted.

The Arabian Sea current have been very good resulting good rain fall in peninsula, west coast and Gujarat state. The western disturbance system has also given good rain fall. The current activity will continue in this area.

We expect the system to develop over Bay of Bengal, but it is not expected to intensify in depression. But it will be a low pressure area which will give rain fall to peninsula and parts of central India. Till 1st wek of August monsoon activity will continue, which will be followed by some weakening and picking up the trend.

The monsoon was in active phase due to formation of a low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood on 24 July. It moved through Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and south Rajasthan upto 28 July. Axis of monsoon trough located south of its normal position during the week. The off-shore trough persisted from south Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast during the week. Two Western Disturbances also affected northwest India. Another low pressure area formed over northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa coast on 28 July.