Ever since the loudmouth Donald Trump returned to the White House, the world has been living dangerously. It sometimes feels as if World War III is waiting for his next social media post. The world has come close to disaster three or four times. Trump's tongue fires missiles, his mind changes like the weather, and his decisions turn a roaring lion in the morning into a frightened kitten by evening.

He set out to teach China a lesson, bring North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to his knees, crush Iran, and push India into deep trouble. He also dreamed of humiliating Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and forcing him to bow before Russia. He wanted to swallow Canada and take control of Greenland. And he wanted the Nobel Peace Prize, as if stopping every war on earth was his personal responsibility!

Also read: धमकियों के बादशाह और यू-टर्न के उस्ताद हैं ट्रंप...!

But China did not bend, Kim did not change, Iran did not disappear, and Russia did not start dancing to Trump's tunes. Canada stood its ground, Greenland showed no interest in being sold, and the Nobel Prize continued to elude him.

Every time, a mountain of threats ends up producing a mouse of a deal. First, he glares and growls. Then, his tough attitude softens. First, he announces that he will teach the world a lesson. Later, he finds himself explaining his own actions.

Neither the East nor the West has changed. The only thing that has taken a beating is America's reputation, which is now facing ridicule around the world. Trump sets out to make history, only to add another embarrassing chapter to his own headlines. He frightens the world and then backs away himself. From tariffs to Russia, nobody knows what the American President will do next.

Threaten the world in the morning, offer a deal in the evening! One day, he declares a trade war. The next, he promises to teach his enemies a lesson. Sometimes, he imposes restrictions on friends. Later, he offers those same friends relief.

This is Donald Trump's style of politics. First, create an explosion. Then, calculate the damage. When things start going wrong, make a U-turn and present it as a spectacular victory!

Trump has turned political U-turns into an art form. His words sound tough, but his decisions often become softer with time. His threats make the world nervous, shake financial markets, and worry governments. Yet, after some time, the same Trump appears at the negotiating table, looking for a deal.

Not every announcement he makes becomes a final decision. Not every threat turns into action. And not every victory he announces is necessarily a real victory!

On April 2, 2025, Trump launched his tariff campaign and called it ‘Liberation Day’. He announced heavy import duties on goods from several countries. His argument was that other countries had taken unfair advantage of America in trade. Now, he said, it was time to settle the score.

The announcement was so aggressive that markets around the world became nervous. Business owners feared that expensive imports, retaliatory tariffs, and a trade war could damage their businesses.

But the story took a new turn on April 9. Trump paused the new tariffs on many countries, excluding China, for 90 days. The general 10 per cent tariff remained in place, while pressure on China increased. Later, further changes followed during negotiations.

Why did a campaign described as a historic economic revolution change so quickly? Perhaps the reaction of financial markets, the concerns of businesses, and the possible damage to the American economy forced Trump to face reality.

Trump's policy towards India also went through several twists and turns. He pressured India over its purchases of Russian oil. Tariffs on Indian goods were increased, and an additional 25 per cent tariff was imposed because India continued buying Russian oil.

Washington's message was clear. If India continued buying oil from Russia, it could pay a heavy economic price. Trump's tough approach worried Indian exporters.

Then, in February this year, the picture began to change. The United States announced a framework for an interim trade agreement with India. It included plans to remove the additional 25 per cent tariff linked to Russian oil purchases and reduce the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.

Trump claimed that India had agreed to reduce its purchases of Russian oil. However, negotiations and uncertainties remained over several parts of the proposed trade arrangement.

The issue is not whether countries should reach agreements. The question is why threats come first, and relief follows later. For a large country like India, this is no small matter. American decisions can affect exports, jobs, investment, and businesses.

The Russian oil story becomes even more interesting. The United States threatened tough action and heavy tariffs against countries buying Russian oil. India and other countries were warned that continuing to buy Russian energy could become expensive.

But October brought another twist. Citing national interests, Trump decided to provide temporary relief from additional punitive tariffs under the relevant law. This eased some of the immediate pressure on countries buying Russian energy.

Around the same time, an American decision involving Russian diesel supplies also attracted attention. The administration referred to energy needs and diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

So here is the question: if countries were supposed to be punished for buying Russian energy, how did the door open for Russian fuel when America itself needed it? This is Trump's problem. His announcements are so dramatic that even backing away from them becomes major news.

Trump's U-turns are not limited to trade. In 2019, during his first term, he approved retaliatory strikes against Iran after Iran shot down an American drone. But just minutes before the attack was due to begin, he called it off.

Trump cited the possible loss of human lives. From the point of view of preventing a major war, this may have been a sensible decision. But the episode also showed how quickly his decisions could change.

Trump's position on NATO has also shifted. He once called the military alliance obsolete. Later, he said it was no longer obsolete. However, he continued demanding that member countries spend more on defence.

His position on TikTok changed over time, too. Initially, he pushed for a ban or the sale of the platform. Later, instead of insisting on an outright ban, he considered extending deadlines and exploring other options.

When major announcements are repeatedly followed by policy changes, it is natural to question the preparation behind the decisions and the seriousness of the leadership.

Even America's friends may no longer feel completely secure. A country's strength does not depend only on its weapons, economy, or military power. Its credibility and the trust others place in its promises are equally important.

Friendly countries plan for years. They sign trade agreements, strengthen defence cooperation, and make investment decisions. If American policies keep swinging between toughness and softness, it becomes difficult for other countries to plan with confidence.

Today, there is a threat of tariffs. Tomorrow, there is an announcement of relief. Today, sanctions are threatened. Tomorrow, exemptions are offered in the name of national interest.

In such an environment, even friendly countries will think twice before treating any American announcement as a final decision.

Trump may believe that uncertainty is his greatest strength. It puts opponents under pressure and may force them to make concessions at the negotiating table. Sometimes, this strategy may even work.

But there is another side to the story. Constantly changing decisions can push friendly countries to look for alternatives. They may also begin to attach less importance to American promises.

Trump has developed a familiar political formula. First, make an announcement so aggressive that the entire world takes notice. Then, when opposition and economic damage begin to appear, look for a compromise. Finally, present the retreat as a victory.

This approach may grab headlines. But does it increase trust around the world? Does it give businesses the stability they need? Can America's friends really rely on its decisions?

Perhaps Trump's greatest talent is his ability to claim victory even when he backs down. But there is no guarantee that the world will applaud this performance every time.

Influence and trust are two different things. Threats may force people to give in for a while. But lasting trust can only be built through consistency and honest intentions.

Being the President of a superpower comes with enormous responsibility. After every setback, it may be easy to declare victory. But history has a way of keeping score. And sooner or later, the bill for political gamesmanship comes due.