The timely arrival of the monsoon this year has brought cheer to farmers all over India. A little while ago, the rivers were in spate, the reservoirs were overflowing, and the canals were brimming. However, after a good spell of rain that lasted until late September, there is now an alarm and concern over a water supply shortage and disruptions, as happens each year.

In recent years, India has not experienced any major droughts or extreme dry conditions; yet, the question remains: where has all the rainwater gone? Clearly, for want of storage capacity, poor maintenance of canal systems and community ponds, choked and polluted streams, the country is not able to save this precious natural resource.

The monsoon has been the lifeblood of India, sustaining agriculture, replenishing water reserves, and supporting millions of livelihoods. Yet, an analysis of monsoon rainfall data from 1975 to 2025 reveals a troubling trend. A slight but persistent decline in rainfall, coupled with increasing variability, is pushing water security to the brink.

Says environmentalist Dr Devashish Bhattacharya, "This pattern, combined with inadequate storage capacity and soaring demand, paints a grim picture for the future. Urgent action is needed to address these critical areas of concern before the monsoon’s diminishing returns trigger a full-blown water crisis."

Over the past 25 years, India's monsoon has grown increasingly erratic. While the overall average annual rainfall has remained relatively constant, the year-to-year variability has intensified.

A striking trend is the rise in short, intense rainfall bursts, replacing long, steady showers. Rainfall distribution has become skewed, with central India receiving more intense spells, and northeast and southern regions experiencing deficits.

Weather Gurus say that the Indian monsoon is no longer just a seasonal event, but it has become a volatile and uneven force. With extremes becoming the new normal, India must shift toward climate-resilient agriculture, better water storage infrastructure, and early-warning systems to mitigate the growing risks.

The data is stark. Some statistical models show a decline in rainfall in parts of northeast and central India, while other parts like Rajasthan have been blessed with good rainfall.

Water availability, closely tied to monsoon performance, is under severe strain. Satellite data from 2002 to 2016 shows declining terrestrial water storage in northern India, driven by reduced rainfall and excessive groundwater extraction. Rising temperatures have also increased evaporation, further shrinking available water. In a region where agriculture consumes the lion’s share of water, these trends are alarming. Urban centres like Delhi and Bangalore, already grappling with water shortages, face worsening conditions as monsoon reliability wanes.

Storage capacity, a critical buffer against monsoon variability, is woefully inadequate. While reservoir inflows have sometimes exceeded irrigation demands over the past 45 years, many regions lack the infrastructure to capture excess runoff from intense rainfall events. Groundwater, a vital reserve, is depleting rapidly due to over-extraction, particularly in northern India. Without significant investment in modern storage systems—both surface and subsurface- the ability to manage water scarcity during weak monsoons will remain a distant goal.

Meanwhile, water demand is skyrocketing. Population growth, urbanisation, and agricultural intensification have driven a relentless rise in consumption. In India, agriculture alone accounts for a massive share of water use, with urban and industrial needs adding further pressure. This mismatch between declining supply and rising demand creates a dangerous feedback loop, where water stress fuels conflict and inequity. The negative correlation between availability and demand is stark: as monsoon rains falter, the gap between what we have and what we need widens.

To avert disaster, governments must prioritise climate-adaptive water management. This includes expanding and modernising storage infrastructure, promoting rainwater harvesting, and enforcing sustainable groundwater use. Investment in precision agriculture and water-efficient technologies can reduce demand, while reforestation and climate mitigation efforts may stabilise rainfall patterns. Public awareness campaigns are crucial to curb wasteful consumption.