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Equity Benchmarks Continued To Trade Choppy With High Volatility


The Nifty started the week on a positive note and tested 7593 levels on Tuesday’s trade but profit booking at higher levels during the second half of the week saw the indices giving up all its weekly gains and closed flat for the week.

The profit booking was mainly on oil & gas stocks as the government's decision to defer revision in gas prices for three months came contrary to market expectations.

The 30 share S&P BSE Sensex closed almost unchanged (down 5 points) at 25099, while the NSE Nifty settled at 7508, down merely 02 points.

Amid Nifty constituents, Bajaj Auto, Dr. Reddy, Gail, Hero Motocorp, Maruti, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra and TCS were top gainers while ITC, Kotak Bank, McDowell’s, Reliance Industry and Ultratech Cement were top draggers.

Nifty formed a Doji candlestick formation on the weekly chart highlighting indecision among the market participant ahead of the budget. Nifty continues to consolidate in a range of 7450-7700 over last three weeks.
Nifty started the week on a positive note but faced selling pressure at higher levels and wiped off the entire weekly gains which indicate that the current consolidation phase is getting extended. Follow through weakness below last two session identical low (7481) may see extension of the profit booking towards 7400 in the coming sessions. However, as the overall bias remains positive, we believe a cool-off towards 7400 should be used as buying opportunity.
   
The corrective decline in the last two weeks has occurred in a mildly falling channel. The lower band of this channel is currently placed 7430, which coincides with the value of the rising trend line connecting the lows since election result session also at 7430.
   
The placement of the 61.8% retracement of the current up move (7218 to 7700) around 7400 makes this a value area for the index.
   
The slower pace of the current down move (13 sessions consumed to retrace 50% of six session rise) highlights the overall positive price structure.
   
The larger time correction and shallow price correction indicates a healthy corrective decline within an ongoing uptrend.
   
A faster retracement above this week’s high of 7593 will be required to signal an end of the current corrective decline and indicate resumption of upward momentum for an eventual breakout above the recent all-time high of 7700.