As Kerala gears up for its assembly elections, the political atmosphere remains subdued, with discussions on football and Gulf employment dominating conversations at coffee stalls outside the Guruvayur temple. However, behind this apparent calm lies a flurry of political activity, with the BJP’s growing ambitions, Congress’s internal struggles, and the Left Democratic Front facing mounting challenges.

The Kerala Assembly comprises 140 seats and three major alliances vying for power are the Left Democratic Front, the United Democratic Front, and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is currently in power, with the Communist Party of India (M) playing a pivotal role. Under senior Congress leader VD Sathyasanga, the UDF and the BJP, led by state president K Surendran, are gearing up to challenge the status quo.

Read in Hindi: केरल में सियासी सन्नाटे के पीछे जारी है बड़ी गहमागहमी

The BJP has intensified its efforts to consolidate the Hindu vote bank in key regions like Thrissur, Guruvayur, Palakkad, and Thiruvananthapuram. The party’s strategy gained momentum after actor Suresh Gopi’s historic victory in the Thrissur parliamentary seat during the 2024 general elections, marking the BJP’s first Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. Building on this success, the BJP is now aiming to replicate its performance in the assembly elections.

With Hindus comprising over 52 per cent of Kerala’s population, the BJP is strategically targeting this demographic while also making inroads into the Christian community. Several influential Christian groups have shown a tilt towards the BJP, potentially boosting the party’s prospects. The BJP’s outreach to these communities, coupled with its focus on development and cultural preservation, is reshaping Kerala’s political landscape.

The Congress, on the other hand, is grappling with internal discord. Senior leader Shashi Tharoor’s recent remarks on the lack of leadership within the state Congress have sparked controversy. His famous selfie with Union Minister Piyush Goyal has further fueled speculation about his political ambitions. Tharoor’s popularity among urban and young voters positions him as a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s post, but his aspirations have created rifts within the party.

If the Congress sidelines Tharoor, it risks alienating a significant voter base. Speculations of Tharoor potentially aligning with the BJP could dramatically alter Kerala’s political equations. This leadership struggle has become a major challenge for the Congress, threatening its unity and electoral prospects.

The LDF, a dominant force in Kerala politics for decades, is facing unprecedented challenges. Rising unemployment, sluggish economic growth, and questions about social justice have fueled public demand for change. Despite Kerala’s impressive 96 per cent literacy rate and politically conscious electorate, traditional allegiances are being tested.

The LDF government’s handling of recent controversies, including allegations of corruption and inefficiency, has further dented its image. Chief Minister Vijayan’s leadership, while strong, is under scrutiny as the opposition capitalizes on these issues to sway voters.

Muslim and Christian communities have historically played a decisive role in Kerala’s politics. These groups, prioritizing issues like social equality, healthcare, and cultural preservation, are now reassessing their political affiliations amid growing polarization. While some Christian groups are leaning towards the BJP, there is noticeable unrest within the Muslim vote bank, traditionally aligned with the Left.

The BJP’s efforts to woo minority communities, combined with its focus on development and cultural identity, are reshaping voter dynamics. However, the LDF and UDF are also intensifying their outreach to retain their traditional support bases.

As the election date approaches, the political heat in Kerala is expected to rise. The BJP’s growing ambitions, Congress’s internal strife, and the LDF’s mounting challenges are setting the stage for a high-stakes electoral battle. The outcome will not only determine Kerala’s political future but also influence national politics, given the state’s strategic importance.

The voters of Kerala, known for their political awareness and active participation, hold the key to this unfolding drama. Will they opt for continuity with the LDF, a revival of the Congress, or a new chapter with the BJP? The answer will shape the state’s political narrative for years to come.