The India Meteorological Department has issued an extremely encouraging and relieving forecast for 2025. This year, the southwest monsoon is expected to be above normal, with an estimated rainfall of about 105 per cent of the average. This good news brings a new ray of hope, especially for the agrarian regions of Uttar Pradesh and the Agra division, where farming is heavily dependent on rainfall.

The historic city of Agra, situated on the banks of the Yamuna River, and the surrounding Braj Mandal are known for their fertile lands. Crops like wheat, potatoes, mustard, and millet are primarily cultivated here, relying heavily on the blessings of the monsoon. In Uttar Pradesh’s agricultural landscape, nearly 70 per cent of the farming area is unirrigated, and 80-85 per cent of the annual rainfall occurs between June and September, serving as the primary source of irrigation for these fields. A bountiful monsoon can not only significantly increase farmers’ incomes but also help control food inflation and breathe new life into the local economy.

However, seasoned experts in the agricultural sector raise a critical question: “The water will come, but where will it go?” The biggest obstacle to fully utilising this potential natural boon lies in the age-old and unresolved issues of water management. The Yamuna River, once considered the lifeline of Agra, is now grappling with severe pollution, uncontrolled urban waste inflow, and the problem of siltation. In 2023, when the Yamuna’s water level crossed the danger mark of 495 feet, devastating floods wreaked havoc in low-lying areas, causing significant loss of life and property.

Additionally, vital water bodies like Sur Sarovar have lost their original water-holding capacity due to siltation and encroachments. Thousands of small and large ponds in Braj Mandal have either disappeared or shrunk, making effective storage of rainwater a major challenge, says Vrindavan-based green activist Jagan Nath Poddar.

When it comes to major reservoirs in Uttar Pradesh, irrigation projects like the Mata Tila Dam and Dhaura Dam have been partially successful in collecting monsoon water. However, as per 2023 data, their actual utility remained limited to about 60 per cent of their full capacity. Due to outdated and inadequate canal systems and traditional techniques used for irrigation, nearly 55 per cent of agricultural land still directly depends on rainfall.

On the other hand, the agricultural sector is facing the growing impacts of climate change, where some areas experience drought while others face unexpected floods simultaneously. Climate change has also made the monsoon pattern unpredictable. For instance, in 2023, parts of Agra faced drought-like conditions, while other areas suffered from devastating floods. This disparity creates a dual crisis for farmers—either their crops are destroyed due to water scarcity, or they don’t get the opportunity to sow seeds due to excessive waterlogging.

Although modern water-efficient technologies like drip irrigation and sprinkler systems are being promoted under the central government’s Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana, their usage in Agra’s agricultural areas remains limited. Initiatives by institutions like the Krishi Vigyan Kendra have brought some awareness towards organic farming and crop diversification, but the pace of this transformation is relatively slow. While some farmers have benefited from the crop insurance scheme introduced to protect them from uncertainties, its reach and impact need to be expanded further.

Sociologist Prof Paras Nath Chaudhary believes, “If effective water management is not implemented, even a better monsoon could prove futile. If the rainwater is not utilised through modern and scientific methods, the pressure on underground water sources will continue to increase, deepening the water crisis in the future.”

It is true that over the past two decades, the IMD’s monsoon forecasts have become more reliable. The deployment of advanced aerosol LIDAR, i.e. Light Detection and Ranging, systems in March 2025 has further improved the accuracy of rainfall predictions. However, the lack of localised and real-time weather monitoring systems in districts like Agra remains a major concern. Farmers need accurate and timely weather information to plan critical agricultural activities like sowing, irrigation, and harvesting.

The solution to this complex problem lies in locally focused strategies. This includes effectively removing silt from the Yamuna River and other ponds to prevent rainwater runoff and ensure its storage. Modernising outdated canals used for irrigation and expanding existing reservoirs is also essential to ensure adequate water reaches every field. Additionally, strengthening flood warning systems and increasing investment in water conservation infrastructure are necessary. The development and implementation of AI-based forecasting systems that provide precise weather information at the field level can play a crucial role in helping farmers plan better.

Amidst the glitter of new government schemes, we must not turn a blind eye to ground realities. Sustainable and effective water management systems need to be continuously improved and implemented.

Meanwhile, the Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority has prioritised the Yamuna River’s buffer zones and green areas in its ambitious master plan for the New Agra Urban Centre. Under this plan, 823 hectares of land have been designated as buffer zones, 485 hectares as green areas, and 434 hectares for forest and agricultural land conservation. This is a welcome and visionary step, but its effective implementation on the ground is equally important.

The positive forecast by the meteorological department has currently sparked a new wave of enthusiasm and hope among the farmers of Braj Mandal. As soon as the first drops of monsoon rain fall on this region’s thirsty land, a new wave of greenery will sweep across the fields, and the farmers’ eyes will reflect new hopes for a better future. However, this will only be possible if Agra and its surrounding areas prioritise water conservation and efficient water management.

This monsoon brings a critical opportunity for Braj Mandal—if we prevent rainwater from flowing away and manage it properly, the region’s agriculture will undoubtedly flourish, bringing prosperity to the lives of farmers. Otherwise, like every year, this good news of abundant rainfall will remain just a pleasant announcement, with no real benefits reaching the farmers.