If Prime Minister Narendra Modi retires at the age of 75 in September 2025, as per the Bharatiya Janata Party’s informal tradition, the most likely scenario would be a smooth succession process.

According to the 2024 India Today survey, Amit Shah is the frontrunner with 25 per cent support, backed by his organisational prowess and strong RSS ties. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, with 19 per cent, remains a strong contender, though his weaker roots in the RSS may pose a hurdle. Nitin Gadkari (13 per cent) and Shivraj Singh Chouhan (5.4 per cent) are also in the running, but lack the same level of popular support.

Yet, it is entirely possible that Modi may continue in office beyond 75, since there is no formal rule mandating retirement, and many within the BJP strongly support him. The RSS will play a crucial role, especially if Mohan Bhagwat steps down in 2025. Choosing a successor will depend on balancing Modi’s legacy, coalition politics, and strategy for the 2029 general elections.

Indian politics today stands at a delicate crossroads. On one hand, the need for strong, stable, and effective leadership is evident. On the other hand, there is a growing demand within the democratic framework for balance, accountability, and space for open competition.

Internationally, India appears to be caught in a vortex of shifting global alignments, especially after US President Donald Trump’s strategic manoeuvres. Domestically, the opposition is leaving no stone unturned in attempting to destabilise Modi’s apple cart. In such a scenario, many see no other leader capable of steering the BJP government successfully into the 2029 elections.

However, some contradictions are apparent. While the retirement age for government employees is 58–60 years, governors, judges, vice-chancellors, and other top officials serve till 65 or beyond. In politics, there is no official age cap, since leadership transitions often follow unwritten conventions rather than formal rules.

The BJP has historically followed an unwritten rule that leaders above 75 retire from active politics and assume advisory roles. This precedent saw senior leaders like LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Sumitra Mahajan, and Najma Heptulla gracefully exit from key party positions.

The question now is: will the same rule apply to Modi? When the BJP came to power in 2014, it made it clear that leaders above 75 would be moved to the party’s ‘Margdarshak Mandal’. This wasn’t mere formality, but a deliberate strategy to enforce discipline and promote younger leadership. Modi himself had enforced this rule on others.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat recently referenced the tradition of vanaprastha, suggesting that leaders should transition to advisory roles with age. India’s average age is just 28, yet its politics remains dominated by elderly leaders. Addressing complex challenges like technology disruption, global politics, climate change, and economic transformation requires fresh thinking and new energy. A generational leadership shift is therefore the need of the hour.

Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had shown that even a guide can be a hero when he voluntarily stepped away from active politics. If Modi were to do the same, he could continue to benefit the party with his vision and experience—without impinging on its autonomy.

At this point, two key debates are emerging. Does India need a more centralised governance model, like a presidential system or enhanced powers for the Prime Minister, to ensure faster decision-making, clear accountability, and stronger national direction?

Should retirement policies be redefined based on physical and mental fitness rather than chronological age? India’s youthful demographic and rapidly changing global environment demand innovative ideas and dynamic leadership. Yet, rejecting tradition and experience entirely is as dangerous as blindly embracing novelty. What India needs is a leadership transition model that converts experience into mentorship, brings new energy to the forefront, and sustains the stability of democratic governance.