Quantitatively, the season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The 2nd stage forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was prepared using a 6-parameter Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and the operational Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).

The latest experimental forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon season rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 102% ± 4% of LPA.

The season rainfall is likely to be 100% of LPA over North-West India, 99% of LPA over Central India, 95% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 93% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of its LPA during July and 94% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9%.