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Jio IPO, 'Listing Gains' or 'Long-Term Risks'…!

Jio Platforms Ltd, which is preparing to add a new chapter to the history of the Indian stock market, has already attracted investors' attention with its Initial Public Offering. Positioned as the country's largest-ever public issue, the IPO received an overwhelming response from institutional investors. The biggest question now is whether the enthusiasm witnessed during the subscription process will continue when the shares are listed on the stock exchange. Investors are also keen to know how much they could potentially gain from their investments.

The IPO opened on Wednesday. The company aims to raise around ₹30,213 crore through the issue. The price band has been fixed at ₹1,065 to ₹1,119 per share. At the upper end of the price band, the company's valuation stands at approximately ₹10.3 lakh crore. Given its size, the offering has emerged as one of the most significant public issues in the Indian capital market.

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Jio Platforms' business extends far beyond mobile phones and internet connectivity. Its business model includes mobile broadband, 5G networks, fibre broadband, AirFiber, digital solutions for enterprises, and future opportunities in Artificial Intelligence and cloud services. Its subsidiary, Reliance Jio Infocomm, holds a leading position in India's telecommunications market. As of June this year, it had approximately 533.3 million subscribers. This extensive customer base and nationwide network provide the company with a significant opportunity to expand its digital services.

A substantial portion of the proceeds from the fresh shares issued through the IPO is intended to be used to repay debt at Reliance Jio Infocomm. This is expected to strengthen the financial position of the group's telecommunications business and improve the allocation of resources for future expansion. However, investors must also understand that the company's size and strong brand do not, by themselves, guarantee an increase in its share price. Ultimately, business growth, improved profitability and the valuation at which the shares trade will play crucial roles.

The issue was fully subscribed within approximately 100 minutes of opening. By the close of the first day, investors had placed bids for around 3.16 times the number of shares available.

As of the close of bidding today, the IPO was subscribed 18.6 times overall, reflecting strong investor demand. The Qualified Institutional Buyers category was subscribed 56.34 times, demonstrating particularly strong interest from institutional investors.

The IPO attracted bids for approximately 367 crore shares against 19.75 crore shares on offer. The overwhelming response highlights investor confidence in Jio’s telecommunications and digital services businesses, although the strong subscription does not guarantee listing gains. Shares are scheduled to be listed on the BSE and NSE on October 28. Foreign Institutional Investors, Domestic Financial Institutions and Mutual Funds played an important role in the QIB category. The rapid response from large institutional investors is being viewed as a sign of market interest in Jio's business and future growth prospects.

Investors are now watching closely to see at what price Jio's shares might be listed. Before the IPO opened, there was considerable discussion about a strong premium for the shares in the grey market. Reports available around October 20 cited a grey market premium of approximately ₹247 per share. Adding this premium to the upper issue price of ₹1,119 would imply an indicative price of around ₹1,366. At this level, the potential gain over the issue price would be approximately 22 per cent.

However, this calculation should not be treated as a forecast of the actual listing price. The grey market is informal and unregulated, and premiums can change rapidly. Final IPO subscription figures, overall stock market trends, demand ahead of listing and investors' willingness to take risks can all influence the actual price. Therefore, ₹1,366 is merely an indicative level based on the premium reported at that time, not a guaranteed target.

Brokerage estimates also reflect a broadly positive outlook on Jio. Some analysts believe that the company's vast subscriber base, strong position in the telecommunications market and ability to expand its broadband and digital services could support future business growth. Market analyses have also suggested the possibility of listing gains of around 15 to 20 per cent. However, the actual performance may differ from these estimates.

From a long-term perspective, the company's key growth opportunities include increasing Average Revenue Per User from mobile services, encouraging customers to move from 2G to better networks and services, expanding broadband access to homes, and providing businesses with cloud- and AI-based solutions. The expansion of JioFiber and JioAirFiber could help the company strengthen its position in the home internet market beyond mobile services. The commercial expansion of AI and cloud services could also become an additional source of revenue in the future, provided the company can turn these opportunities into profitable businesses.

However, the challenges are considerable. Investment in telecommunications networks and spectrum remains a continuing requirement. Competition, regulatory changes, slower-than-expected growth in average revenue per user, and delays in turning new digital services into significant sources of income could affect the company's performance. Investors will need to monitor how quickly profits and cash flow grow alongside revenue.

Jio's IPO valuation is another important consideration. At the issue price, the company is valued at approximately 31.7 to 33.3 times its profit for the 2025–26 financial year and around 15 to 15.6 times its Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation, i.e. EBITDA. Some brokerages consider this valuation reasonable in view of the company's growth prospects. However, such a valuation also builds in expectations of sustained growth in future earnings. If the company successfully capitalises on its growth opportunities, the current valuation could be supported. If the anticipated growth falls short, however, the share price could come under pressure.

Investors should therefore avoid evaluating the Jio IPO solely on the basis of potential listing-day gains. Short-term investors need to consider changing market demand and price volatility ahead of listing. Long-term investors should monitor the company's subscriber base, average revenue per user, broadband expansion, income from digital services, capital expenditure and changes in debt.

Jio's IPO offers investors an opportunity to participate in India's rapidly expanding digital economy. Strong institutional demand on the first day has certainly increased enthusiasm for the offering, but its real success will not be determined by the listing alone. Over the coming years, the most important test of the stock's long-term performance will be how effectively the company converts its vast subscriber base into more profitable services.

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* With inputs from agencies and various financial reports.