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Is neighbour Bangladesh the Next Pakistan?


India's eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, has raised serious concerns worldwide after Islamic fundamentalists forcibly evicted Sheikh Hasina, who took refuge in India in August.

The recent developments in Bangladesh have sparked discussions in diplomatic circles, mirroring Pakistan's tumultuous history. As the political scenario worsens, fears of a possible military intervention are growing.

Read in Hindi: ‘दूसरा पाकिस्तान’ बनने के लिए तैयार है बांग्लादेश…!

International affairs expert Prof Paras Nath Chaudhuri says, "The last few months have seen widespread unrest, as protests against the current government have intensified. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that public safety is constantly threatened, not only by civil unrest but also by the re-emergence of radical elements who have gained a foothold in various provinces.”

“This rise in radicalism reflects broader regional trends and is a direct challenge to the secular fabric of Bangladeshi society. The possibility of intervention by the armed forces is a disturbing prospect that the international community cannot ignore. Returning to military rule will undoubtedly delay the restoration of democratic politics," he adds.

Bangladesh had made significant progress towards democratic governance in the early 2000s, but that progress now hangs in the balance. There have been times when the military has established itself as a stabilizing force amid chaos, so if the military feels that the current government cannot maintain stability, intervention may be justified in their view. Such meddling would have dire consequences for civil liberties and the rule of law, echoing the experiences of neighbouring Pakistan.

For now, the plight of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina adds another layer of complexity to the situation today. Currently sheltered in India, her political future looks increasingly bleak. Her democratic credentials have come under scrutiny, and questions are being raised about the effectiveness of her leadership amid growing unrest. The prospect of her return to power – whether through popular support or compulsory elections – remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the judicial landscape has developed a dangerous trend toward ‘kangaroo courts’ that dispense justice arbitrarily rather than lawfully.

Economic indicators also paint a worrying picture for Bangladesh. "Once seen as a rising star among developing economies, Bangladesh faces significant negative pressures. Inflation is skyrocketing, foreign investment is declining, and key industries are on the verge of collapse. This economic instability could exacerbate existing social tensions, leading to widespread unrest and possibly inviting more direct military control to prioritize economic stabilization," says economic expert Ajay Jha.

India is also concerned about the future of Hindus. Minorities in Bangladesh are facing severe atrocities, increasing a sense of apprehension in society.

On this subject, Dr Debashish Bhattacharya says that persecution of minorities not only signals a moral crisis but also threatens to deepen social divisions, potentially leading to more unrest and violence. In a nation already grappling with unrest, such issues can provoke a violent reaction.

One question that keeps coming up is still waiting for an answer. Can't the fundamentalist beliefs of a particular religion keep pace with the democratic lifestyle and open society values?