Analysing brain activity can provide a more effective, accurate means for forecasting consumer decision-making and market behaviour than common conventional methods, according to new research from Rotterdam School of Management Erasmus University.

The study, conducted by Alexander Genevsky, alongside Lester C Tong and Brian Knutson of Stanford University, monitored patterns in human brain activity to understand how these could provide reliable indicators of which ideas, products and services will capture widespread interest from consumers. The results provide marketers with an effective tool for better consumer engagement. Their work analysed 80 individuals and compared their results to the data gathered from thousands of internet users, finding significant correlations.

In a first experiment, the participants were asked to review real projects posted to crowd-funding website Kickstarter and decide whether or not they would choose to back the projects. In a second, participants were asked to decide which videos they would prefer to watch on YouTube.

Whilst these decisions were being made, their brain activity was recorded. The process, called neuroimaging – allowed the researchers to capture the brains’ response to the stimuli before the individuals decided how to respond.

The study focused on a part of the brain called the Nucleus Accumbens, which responds to the things people find rewarding or appealing. By comparing the participants’ NAcc response to the content they watched, the researchers were able to identify which brain patterns indicated a likelihood for higher engagement and buy-in.

When the researchers then compared this dataset to a larger internet sample, they found significant correlations between brain activity in the laboratory sample and product preferences in the larger market.

Their research, the researchers state, provides marketers, entrepreneurs, investors and other professionals with a more accurate and effective means of predicting and responding to consumer trends and desires. Such ‘neuroforecasting’ outperforms more commonly-used measures of consumer behaviour prediction, with greater accuracy and nuance, but could also be used to help refine them.

Prof Gevensky explains, “Conventional methods for forecasting consumer choice, including surveys and monitoring the behaviour of small samples, often fail to generalise to larger markets. Understanding which components of the choice process, including neural activity, can generalise out-of-sample might help to improve forecasts. The study shows that brain activity in regions associated with early emotional response that are more widely shared across people can lead to improved market forecasts.”

Another key finding was efficiency, with only a small sample size needed to accurately generate meaningful forecasts. For industry, the researchers say, neuroforecasting could provide significant benefits; using such methods to enhance their products and services, as well as their communications, facilitating more effective consumer outreach and crafting messages and offerings that hold more appeal for existing or even new markets.

Effectively predicting popularity can keep companies ahead of their competitors and responsive to market change.