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Apparel retail struggles with long lead times and forecasting errors


Mumbai: Nearly 40 per cent of apparel inventory in retail is sold at discounted prices due to long supply chain lead times and forecasting errors, leading to profit erosion and weaker brand positioning, according to a new industry report by Vector Consulting Group in collaboration with NielsenIQ.

The report, ‘From Threads to Trends: Navigating Supply Chain Complexity in Apparel Retail, ’ reveals that lead times of more than 6-9 months force brands to plan collections a year in advance, making demand forecasting difficult and increasing the risk of unsold stock. This results in size set breakages (20-40 per cent) and high end-of-season sales (30-40 per cent), hurting profitability and brand perception. Manually executing in-season stock adjustments, such as inter-store transfers, is often reactive, slow, and inefficient, making it ineffective in improving sell-through.

Kulin Lalbhai, Vice Chairman of Arvind Limited, officially launched the report at the Retail Leadership Summit 2025, India's premier retail forum, held here on February 27. The report challenges outdated industry assumptions, such as the rigid reliance on seasonal collections and fixed vendor lead times and proposes a differentiated product lifecycle approach. This strategy classifies merchandise into Perennials, short life cycle items, and very short life cycle items, enabling brands to streamline supply chains, minimize markdowns, and adapt more effectively to shifting consumer demand.

Commenting on the findings, P Senthilkumar, Senior Partner at Vector Consulting Group, said, "The apparel industry has long struggled with supply chain inefficiencies that impact margins and customer satisfaction. This research uncovers the fundamental flaws in traditional supply chain practices and presents a roadmap for retailers to transition to a more agile, demand-driven model."